Data-fiasco at the Corona-crisis: Stanford Professor warns of blind flight in action

In a time in which we need good information, missing us by a good scientific practice, verifiable Numbers, the scientist John Ioannidis. He speaks against the lock downs and Social Distancing measures.

"We make decisions without reliable Datenbasis", the statistics, writes scientist John Ioannidis on the American news site "statnews".

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In a time in which everyone is better information need, lack of evidence-based numbers (Numbers that are backed up by good scientific practice), how many people with Sars-CoV-2 were infected and who is still infected.

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Consequences of long-term lock downs are not in sight

"We need better information to guide decisions and actions of such monumental importance and überwachen&quot their effects;, the Professor of medicine and epidemiology from the University of Stanford explains.

He speaks to in the article on the Social Distancing and Lockdown measures, which have now been made in several countries or in conversation. "However, how long such measures should remain in place if the pandemic is spreading unabated throughout the world?", he asks in it.  

The vaccine or drug development takes several months, possibly even years, he believes. Against the Background of this time, the consequences of such long-term lock downs were not foreseen margins, says John Ioannidis in his article.

The currently known Figures to Sars-CoV-2 to be absolutely unreliable, and the vast majority of infections is probably not known. Still, many countries do not have the ability to test a larger number of people. Ioannidis called the "the evidence Fiasko".

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  • Ioannidis: The position is distorted

    He has his own opinion: "Reported lethality rates, as the official 3.4 percent of the world health organization (WHO), the effect of Horror and are bedeutungslos", writes Ioannidis. Because patients who were tested, were mainly those with severe symptoms and severe progression of the disease. This will lead to a distortion of the situation and could constitute worse than it actually is, in terms of the mortality rate.  

    "The only Situation where a complete, closed Population was tested, was on the ship Diamond Princess", the Professor reported. Here, the mortality rate was 1 percent – despite the fact that mainly older people were on Board. Older people belong to the risk group of suffering from the Sars-CoV-2 caused disease Covid-19.

    The expert assumes, would be to transfer these findings to the younger population of the USA, would be the death rate there, maybe even lower. Ioannidis therefore assumes a fatality rate of 0.05 to 1 percent based on the Infected in the U.S. population.  

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    Due to unclear Numbers, the uncertainty is very large

    However, the margin is very large. The mortality rate would be in fact, in the case of 0.05 percent, would be lower than for seasonal Influenza. "If that were the true Rate would be such a Lockdown with the potentially enormous social and financial consequences absolutely irrational", the scientist assumes.  

    Depending on where they would occur, such as in nursing homes, may also infect the already well-known corona viruses million people and up to eight percent of Patients kill. Also, this mild corona virus could contribute Ioannidis, according to the several thousand dead in a year – however, we do not know, because the dead are not tested on them.

    Sure is only, as the Professor, in his article writes that at the moment important information were missing.

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